Battery fantasy

[duckybucky]

I would appreciate comments from all those EV owners out there who are smarter than I.

I have this fantasy, but I have no idea how plausible it might be or not be.

My fantasy is that five years from now, when my 2019 e-Golf has 40,000 miles and the battery has, hypothetically, dropped to 80-85% of its current capacity, I pay $5000 or so (hypothetically) and I get an aftermarket battery with the same size and weight of the original but has (hypothetically) 50-60 kWh capacity. My fantasy is obviously influenced by Moore’s Law. What are the chances?

 

[f1geek]

Sounds like a good fantasy. I think there are many technical details that will prevent this from being easily implemented at a reasonable cost, but I hope I am wrong. Since there is no active thermal management in e-Golf, I’m guessing cells would need to be LFP (so no need to add TMS) and also be of the PHEV2 format to make them fit in the current e-Golf pack architecture. LFP is just now equaling energy density of current e-Golf cells (which are probably ~6 year old technology). Moore’s Law does not apply to batteries. Chemistry does not move as quickly as chips. In 5 years, maybe there will be LFP PHEV2 cells that are 50 % more energy dense than what is in the 35.8 kWh. e-Golf. It might happen. $5000? Who knows?

 

[2016golfse]

Zero chance. There are battery replacement services for the Nissan Leaf, and they only use the battery from wrecked ones.

 

[f1geek]

Zero chance is a good guess. I would say less than 50% chance, at least in the US. In Europe, chances are probably higher.

 

[somethingcool]

Yeah the Leaf proves it's technically possible, I just don't think there is enough of a eGolf market for it to be worthwhile for anyone to do. Batteries have plenty of value in the storage aftermarket so the car part of the vehicle is the least valuable.

 

[MichaelG]

I am in this camp as well. I have 2016 e-golf. I bought it used with 13K miles on it. I really like it. It has been my MO to own a car for 15-20 years. Besides the battery, I can't imagine anything else wearing out for at least 200K. I am hopeful that I am not alone in this thinking. It seems like such a waste to dispose of the car when there is nothing mechanically wrong.

 

[f1geek]

When you say "dispose", unless you yourself abandon the car somewhere on your own property, it will not be thrown away. All of the non-battery parts are highly recycled just like they are in an ICE car, and the battery is still very valuable and will mostly likely end up in stationary storage where a degraded pack can continue to operate for another decade or even longer. After the pack becomes too degraded be useful in a stationary application, it will then be recycled and the metals used to make new cells.