Who reserved a Tesla Model 3?

[WillC]

I reserved one online a little after the online window opened.

I like my eGolf, but there are no other companies with anything like the supercharger network. Faster charging at well located and maintained sites with a redundant number of chargers at each site.

 

[Sptgolf]

I did. Right before the reveal. My e-Golf's lease will be up at the beginning of 2019 so I'll have some options. I've been very happy with the e-Golf, so who knows, maybe I'll just lease a new e-Golf with twice the range and at a lower price when the time comes. I think the big benefit will be all the other BEV's coming down in price to compete with the Model 3.

 

[GadgetGav]

I think the big benefit will be all the other BEV's coming down in price to compete with the Model 3.

I'm not sure the other manufacturers will have to come down in price... The e-Golf SEL is around $35k list, so it the Kia Soul EV and the Leaf and Focus EV are closer to $30k. The range is the big selling point for the Tesla and they can do that thanks to their investment in the Gigafactory. It'll be interesting to see if other manufacturers can match the range at the price point.

 

[RonDawg]

Considering the expected long expected waiting times for the Model 3 and especially for ones not so heavily optioned out, I don't expect the Model 3 to be that influential in driving down sale prices, at least not initially.

If anything, I can expect prices for other "200" mile BEVs to stay relatively close to MSRP until supply of lower end Model 3's is not so greatly outpaced by demand.

 

[Sptgolf]

True. I think it will depend on the supply of the Model 3. But if there is good supply I just don't see anything competing with autopilot, 0-60 under six seconds, 215+ miles of range, free or discounted supercharging at 35k. In 2019 If a Bolt or e-Golf is 37k even with 200 miles of range, I'm not likely going to buy it over a Model 3. If it's 5-10k less then maybe there's a value for the price there. If you look at the Spark, 500e or Focus electric now they have to really discount them to move them as they are lower range cars and people don't want to get stuck in a low range car for many years. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out for sure, but I'm guessing it's a net positive for BEV's and the lowering of BEV prices overall.

 

[GadgetGav]

Yes, you're right. I think a base spec Model 3 with 200+ mile range at $35k will force lower range cars down in price. Luckily the other manufacturers have a head start so making their next generations cheaper should be possible.
I hope it tends to drive the useful range of EVs up though or at least broaden options. Maybe other manufacturers will follow Tesla's example and offer multiple battery sizes at different price points. They already offer different engine options in their ICE ranges, so it's not a big leap for them.

I doubt the lowest price Model 3 will include supercharging, and that's OK. If it's not something you plan to use a lot, why not just pay per charge on long trips. They discourage even Model S owners regularly charging at the same stations, so it's not really meant to be free energy for life. Musk said that typical specs will push the Model 3 towards $42k which is probably the addition of dual motors and supercharging.

Like you say Sptgolf, it's going to be interesting to see how it unfolds but I think it is a big positive step for EVs and a bigger impact than the Bolt regardless of how much GM go on about being on sale before the Model 3..!

 

[bizzle]

The main problems with the Tesla 3 are going to be the fact that they are going to cost nearly $10K more than the eGolf/Bolt simply because the tax credits will be all used up and the fact that both the eGolf and Bolt are backed by nearly 100 years of engineering and infrastructure Musk can't leverage.

 

[GadgetGav]

The main problems with the Tesla 3 are going to be the fact that they are going to cost nearly $10K more than the eGolf/Bolt simply because the tax credits will be all used up and the fact that both the eGolf and Bolt are backed by nearly 100 years of engineering and infrastructure Musk can't leverage.

eGolf SE MSRP $28,995
eGolf SEL MSRP $35, 595
Model 3 MSRP $35,000

Before any tax credits.

And from what I understand, the tax incentive tapers off quarter by quarter after the manufacturer has delivered 200,000 units, so they should last well into Model 3 deliveries. Not that they're needed for price parity...

 

[JoulesThief]

The main problems with the Tesla 3 are going to be the fact that they are going to cost nearly $10K more than the eGolf/Bolt simply because the tax credits will be all used up and the fact that both the eGolf and Bolt are backed by nearly 100 years of engineering and infrastructure Musk can't leverage.

eGolf SE MSRP $28,995
eGolf SEL MSRP $35, 595
Model 3 MSRP $35,000

Before any tax credits.

And from what I understand, the tax incentive tapers off quarter by quarter after the manufacturer has delivered 200,000 units, so they should last well into Model 3 deliveries. Not that they're needed for price parity...

Who pays MSRP? I surely didn't... I was 11k off of MSRP before state rebate and Fed tax credit. So MSRP on an e-Golf is a bogey number. It's a very valid number on a Model 3. An entry level Model 3 for most, without the tax credit, will by 35k. My 2015 e-Golf SEL was 15.3k. 20k of pocket change will buy me a lot of something else.

 

[bizzle]

The main problems with the Tesla 3 are going to be the fact that they are going to cost nearly $10K more than the eGolf/Bolt simply because the tax credits will be all used up and the fact that both the eGolf and Bolt are backed by nearly 100 years of engineering and infrastructure Musk can't leverage.

eGolf SE MSRP $28,995
eGolf SEL MSRP $35, 595
Model 3 MSRP $35,000

Before any tax credits.

And from what I understand, the tax incentive tapers off quarter by quarter after the manufacturer has delivered 200,000 units, so they should last well into Model 3 deliveries. Not that they're needed for price parity...

I really shouldn't have to spell this out...

JoulesThief already pointed out the silliness of comparing MSRP but aside from that Tesla has been selling EVs at about 10:1 ratio to VW.
Tesla has already sold over 100K EVs so how many of those 300k Model 3 orders receive the federal incentive is to be seen. It will be some or none but certainly not all, and that's just for the initial orders.

After those early sales, Tesla models will no longer be eligible for the incentives while VW will still have about a decade left of incentivized sales.

 

[Sptgolf]

Regarding the tax credit, there is a loophole that in theory lets Tesla sell 100,000 plus model 3's that are eligible for the credit if they can time it right. http://time.com/money/4288537/tesla-tax-credit-loophole/

 

[GadgetGav]

I really shouldn't have to spell this out...

JoulesThief already pointed out the silliness of comparing MSRP but aside from that Tesla has been selling EVs at about 10:1 ratio to VW.
Tesla has already sold over 100K EVs so how many of those 300k Model 3 orders receive the federal incentive is to be seen. It will be some or none but certainly not all, and that's just for the initial orders.

After those early sales, Tesla models will no longer be eligible for the incentives while VW will still have about a decade left of incentivized sales.

From earlier in this thread:

200,000 units delivered in the US (not world-wide) triggers the phaseout for a particular manufacturer.

The 2 quarters after the 200,000 limit is still full rebate, no limit on cars. Then 1 quarter of 1/2 rebate, no limit on cars, then 1 quarter of 1/4 rebate, no limit on cars.

So if Tesla rearranges production so that it hits the USA 200,000 limit on day 1 of the quarter, then that will be almost 3 full quarters of unlimited deliveries that qualify for the full credit.

And as for the silliness of comparing MSRP, the prior point you were making was that the Model 3 would be $10k more than the eGolf "simply because the tax credits will be all used up". They may be $10K less because VW has to discount their cars to shift them off the lot, and Tesla has people lining up two years before the car goes on sale but that has nothing to do with the tax incentives or the rate at which they are phased out.

 

[JoulesThief]

I really shouldn't have to spell this out...

JoulesThief already pointed out the silliness of comparing MSRP but aside from that Tesla has been selling EVs at about 10:1 ratio to VW.
Tesla has already sold over 100K EVs so how many of those 300k Model 3 orders receive the federal incentive is to be seen. It will be some or none but certainly not all, and that's just for the initial orders.

After those early sales, Tesla models will no longer be eligible for the incentives while VW will still have about a decade left of incentivized sales.

From earlier in this thread:

200,000 units delivered in the US (not world-wide) triggers the phaseout for a particular manufacturer.

The 2 quarters after the 200,000 limit is still full rebate, no limit on cars. Then 1 quarter of 1/2 rebate, no limit on cars, then 1 quarter of 1/4 rebate, no limit on cars.

So if Tesla rearranges production so that it hits the USA 200,000 limit on day 1 of the quarter, then that will be almost 3 full quarters of unlimited deliveries that qualify for the full credit.

And as for the silliness of comparing MSRP, the prior point you were making was that the Model 3 would be $10k more than the eGolf "simply because the tax credits will be all used up". They may be $10K less because VW has to discount their cars to shift them off the lot, and Tesla has people lining up two years before the car goes on sale but that has nothing to do with the tax incentives or the rate at which they are phased out.

It remains to be seen what a stripped Model 3 sells for, and a loaded model 3. All that was taken was a $1000 deposit. There is no telling what the price truly will be for a stripped Model 3, and what it will be for a loaded Model 3, come 2018 or 2019.

 

[bizzle]

I really shouldn't have to spell this out...

JoulesThief already pointed out the silliness of comparing MSRP but aside from that Tesla has been selling EVs at about 10:1 ratio to VW.
Tesla has already sold over 100K EVs so how many of those 300k Model 3 orders receive the federal incentive is to be seen. It will be some or none but certainly not all, and that's just for the initial orders.

After those early sales, Tesla models will no longer be eligible for the incentives while VW will still have about a decade left of incentivized sales.

From earlier in this thread:

200,000 units delivered in the US (not world-wide) triggers the phaseout for a particular manufacturer.

The 2 quarters after the 200,000 limit is still full rebate, no limit on cars. Then 1 quarter of 1/2 rebate, no limit on cars, then 1 quarter of 1/4 rebate, no limit on cars.

So if Tesla rearranges production so that it hits the USA 200,000 limit on day 1 of the quarter, then that will be almost 3 full quarters of unlimited deliveries that qualify for the full credit.

And as for the silliness of comparing MSRP, the prior point you were making was that the Model 3 would be $10k more than the eGolf "simply because the tax credits will be all used up". They may be $10K less because VW has to discount their cars to shift them off the lot, and Tesla has people lining up two years before the car goes on sale but that has nothing to do with the tax incentives or the rate at which they are phased out.

What are you talking about?

Tesla's tax incentives are going to be wiped out in this initial offering of the Tesla 3. It isn't per model, it's per manufacturer. Tesla is already halfway through their 200,000 mark. They aren't going to be able to manufacture 300,000 Model 3's in six months...get real.

But that's neither here nor there. The real point I was making is that after this initial wave of pre-orders are met the tax incentives will be wiped out, regardless if it takes 1 day or 1 year while VW's incentives will still be active for the next decade. Do you have the foggiest idea how few eGolfs VW has sold so far? I wouldn't even be surprised if VW never hits 200K EVs sold before fuel based cars are completely off the road.

 

[GadgetGav]

But that's neither here nor there. The real point I was making is that after this initial wave of pre-orders are met the tax incentives will be wiped out, regardless if it takes 1 day or 1 year while VW's incentives will still be active for the next decade. Do you have the foggiest idea how few eGolfs VW has sold so far? I wouldn't even be surprised if VW never hits 200K EVs sold before fuel based cars are completely off the road.

I've got a fairly good idea how many were sold; 4,232 in 2015 and only 612 in the first quarter of 2016.
116,597 EVs were sold in the US in 2015 of which 25,700 were Tesla Model S, so yes, Tesla is working through their 200,000 units much faster than VW is.

None of that changes the fact that the list price for both cars is very similar. Actual on-the-road prices vary more because of the business models of the companies concerned, the relative specs of the cars and simple supply & demand economics than tax incentives. All of Tesla's messaging about the price of the Model 3 has been excluding the $7,500 tax credit, so they're clearly expecting that not many people will get to use it on a Model 3.

But this thread wasn't about the relative pricing of the Model 3 and the eGolf, it was just meant to judge demand from a higher-end EV from current EV owners... :roll:

 

[JoulesThief]

Who knows, Tesla may make and sell a slew of S model and X models before the 3 is even released, wiping out even more of the remaining $7500 tax credits. I predict there is a ton of speculation going on on these model 3's and there will be a glut of them available once production starts picking up and filling orders faster.

Due to cheap production costs of petrol burning cars, 3rd world countries will continue to offer ICE vehicle transportation to the masses. Electric cars, for now are for industrialized nations, due to the cost.

 

[RonDawg]

200,000 units delivered in the US (not world-wide) triggers the phaseout for a particular manufacturer.

The 2 quarters after the 200,000 limit is still full rebate, no limit on cars. Then 1 quarter of 1/2 rebate, no limit on cars, then 1 quarter of 1/4 rebate, no limit on cars.

So if Tesla rearranges production so that it hits the USA 200,000 limit on day 1 of the quarter, then that will be almost 3 full quarters of unlimited deliveries that qualify for the full credit.

Actually, it is as follows:
Full tax credit is available for one full quarter after the 200,000 is reached. For example, if Tesla's limit is reached in February 2018, cars delivered on or after July 1 will get half of the tax credit.
Half tax credit is in force for 2 quarters, ie. the rest of 2018.
One quarter tax credit is in force for 2 quarters, ie. the first half of 2019.
No credit for cars delivered on or after July 1, 2019 in this example.

FYI for those wondering, this info comes from this page on the IRS website: https://www.irs.gov/Businesses/Plug-In-Electric-Vehicle-Credit-IRC-30-and-IRC-30D I found it while researching something else.

 

[forbin404]

As a shocker

Tesla posts 1st quarter loss. 2 Execs leave

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-tesla-earns-20160504-story.html

 

[miimura]

The bigger shocker is that they want to move up the schedule. They initially targeted 2020 for the year to produce 500,000 cars. In the earnings call they said they want it to be 2018. In typical Tesla fashion, I interpret that to mean by the end of 2018 they will hit the run rate of 500k/year which is 9,616 vehicles per week. They expect to hit 2,000/wk combined Model S and Model X production by the end of Q2 this year.

 

[Skryll]

I reserved one in-person. There's lots of time for everyone else to catch up, but as of today, the 200+mi range, 0-60 <6s, and $35k is a line in the sand no one else is openly standing by, so I don't see the harm in putting a refundable deposit to place myself closer to the front of the line. [...]

If my 2016 SE e-Golf had a 200 mile, or even a 150 mile range, I probably would have passed on the Model 3.

I reserved one online after the reveal event, and am waiting to take delivery of an X in about a month. Will sell the Honda Oddysee if X turns out to be as great as I think despite less seats (6 instead of 8) and less storage room, and will replace the 2015 eGolf with the 3 in 2018 if it then still all makes sense... as you said fully refundable

To follow up on this: I did replace our Honda Oddyssey with a Tesla Model X 90D in May 2016. Love the car ! Night and day difference in performance and also quality of the iphone app, but also four times the cost of the eGolf. Now no longer making road trips with the eGolf, and use it for local driving only.

I drive the 2015 eGolf still a lot since my wife drives the Tesla since she has the longer commute and its the safer car, but I love driving the eGolf for its small turning radius, fun fast acceleration making the wheels spin when not careful etc, so more of a fun challenge type drive.

The Tesla is the car for long distance driving for us, i.e. 400 miles from SF to LA or Tahoe for skiing.

I am considering replacing the eGolf with the Model 3 just for the experience, but it isnt really necessary. TSLA shares may pay for it tho