lease residual value

[Rsolaregolf]

Looking to buy a EV in the not too distant future and was wondering what the residual value on various lease options have been.
We have an excess of power from our AllEarth solar tracker.
This would be a local car as we have a 13 Passat TDI for long trips.

 

[JoulesThief]

You are looking to lease, not buy.

Residual value won't matter when you lease, just your up front costs and monthly costs while you are driving the car.

I have a 2013 Touareg TDI Sport and a 2014 Passat TDI SE w/ DSG for my out of the city trips. Works out wonderful. If you can afford it, I'd highly recommend it, the e-Golf. I bought mine in October of 2015, a 2015 SEL, and so far, it's been just superb, once i adapted to some of it's quirks. That's the key, you need to be able to adapt to some of it's quirks. Otherwise, you'll be unhappy. HVAC fan turning on automatically and resetting itself to 72F every time you start the car after it's sat over 20 minutes is one of those VERY annoying quirks. That seems to be a default value, VW wants you to pay $70 to $120 to "reset" it to a customer preference. Tech Tip 87-15-02 is supposed to take care of it. Having owned VW product for 4 decades, it's maddening that VW doesn't ask you what you want for settings before you even pick the car up brand new, off of the lot. Certainly, for a $36,400 car, it should be a basic option... otherwise rip out the god damned Climatronic and leave it like it comes on a Jetta or Passat SE, manual.

 

[Rsolaregolf]

we'd buy something used, a couple years old. Should be some big depreciation with new models, longer range, coming on line and many cars coming off lease. I'm just wondering what the residual is averaging.

With the excess from our solar tracker all local driving would be "free" if you don't consider the cost of the solar installation.

 

[miimura]

Purely as an example, here are the figures from our 2015 e-Golf LE lease on 4/12/2015

MSRP: $34,270
Dealer selling Price: $29,962 (inc Excess Wear Policy)
Cap Reduction: $9823.13
Adjusted Cap Cost: $20,138.87
Residual: $13,022.60
---------------------------
Depreciation: $7,116.27
Rent Charge $119.37
Total Base of Payments $7,235.64
36 lease payments of: $200.99
Sales & Use Tax: $17.59
Total Payment: $218.58/mo

Notes: Cap reduction includes: Tax Credit ($7,500), Trade-In, and Down Payment which is then reduced by the First Payment, Registration Fees, Tire Fee, and Sales Tax.

Buying out this lease would cost the Residual plus sales tax on the residual plus the next year of registration.
Lease return has a Disposition Fee of $350.

 

[JoulesThief]

Purely as an example, here are the figures from our 2015 e-Golf LE lease on 4/12/2015

MSRP: $34,270
Dealer selling Price: $29,962 (inc Excess Wear Policy)
Cap Reduction: $9823.13
Adjusted Cap Cost: $20,138.87
Residual: $13,022.60
---------------------------
Depreciation: $7,116.27
Rent Charge $119.37
Total Base of Payments $7,235.64
36 lease payments of: $200.99
Sales & Use Tax: $17.59
Total Payment: $218.58/mo

Notes: Cap reduction includes: Tax Credit ($7,500), Trade-In, and Down Payment which is then reduced by the First Payment, Registration Fees, Tire Fee, and Sales Tax.

Buying out this lease would cost the Residual plus sales tax on the residual plus the next year of registration.
Lease return has a Disposition Fee of $350.

My 2015 SEL had a MSRP of 36,300. I paid $27,695 OTD. Sales tax was 7.5%, don't remember what registration or title fees were. With CA rebate and $7500 Federal tax credit, my out of pocket cost is $17695. I was quoted a residual of $13,400 on a 10k mile a year lease. Let's assume I can get $12,000 in 36 months if I sell my car. Yes, I lost the time value of money for the car, no, I won't owe sales tax on the residual owed on the car. Which way am I better off, lease or buy?

 

[Rsolaregolf]

NH has no sales tax or state rebate however we do have a tax on the initial value of the vehicle, paid each year when you register. This decreases annually until after 5 years when it remains constant. I don't remember exactly but off the top of my head I'd say it starts about 1% decreasing to .15%.

I don't believe I can even lease an e-golf here in NH as of now. Our closest VW dealer is in VT about 50 miles, not sure if I could lease one there and register it in NH. I know I could register one if I owned it.

I'm still driving our 07 Mazda 3 I bought to commute with when I was still working. We use it for our local driving. We'll give it to our daughter after her 00 Passat 1.8T isn't worth fixing. Then we'll get an EV. Btw I drove a friends Tesla S, very nice ride but too $$$ for our budget.

Thanks for the input.

 

[johnnylingo]

To answer the original question, I think I remember seeing roughly 12k for the 2016 SE and 15.5k for the 2016 SEL. This is after 36 months.

One could look at those and say they're too high, or too low. Depends on battery range of the 2017/2018 models, gas prices, adoption of autonomous vehicles, 2016 election, etc etc

 

[Rsolaregolf]

To answer the original question, I think I remember seeing roughly 12k for the 2016 SE and 15.5k for the 2016 SEL. This is after 36 months.

One could look at those and say they're too high, or too low. Depends on battery range of the 2017/2018 models, gas prices, adoption of autonomous vehicles, 2016 election, etc etc

Exactly, we won't know for 2 to 3 years. I did see a 2015 limited with <7K, down in MA about 175 miles from here for $19772.

Just looking to get informed in case we need to get one on fairly short notice. We don't like driving the TDI for short trips, especially in the colder temps. The diesel needs to go at least 15-20 miles before it is thoroughly warmed up in the winter.
If we need to find an Ev May-Oct it would be no rush as we can drive our Maita.

 

[mfennell]

With CA rebate and $7500 Federal tax credit, my out of pocket cost is $17695. I was quoted a residual of $13,400 on a 10k mile a year lease. Let's assume I can get $12,000 in 36 months if I sell my car. Yes, I lost the time value of money for the car, no, I won't owe sales tax on the residual owed on the car. Which way am I better off, lease or buy?

If you really do intend to switch at 3 years I think the lease would have worked out better. There are plenty of variables of course (price of gas at that time, how the batteries age, etc) but you are being pretty optimistic on the value of a 3 year old e-golf. By that time, the "standard" for short range EVs will be 100+ miles and the 200 mile range Bolt will have been out for more than a year. Tesla may even have sold a Model 3 by then. I think the early 80 mile range cars will be yesterday's news and their value will reflect that.

For the record, my residual (2015 SEL,7500 mile/yr lease) is $13,100. I would certainly consider buying it at end of term given the right offer but I can't imagine paying $13k for it.

 

[JoulesThief]

With CA rebate and $7500 Federal tax credit, my out of pocket cost is $17695. I was quoted a residual of $13,400 on a 10k mile a year lease. Let's assume I can get $12,000 in 36 months if I sell my car. Yes, I lost the time value of money for the car, no, I won't owe sales tax on the residual owed on the car. Which way am I better off, lease or buy?

If you really do intend to switch at 3 years I think the lease would have worked out better. There are plenty of variables of course (price of gas at that time, how the batteries age, etc) but you are being pretty optimistic on the value of a 3 year old e-golf. By that time, the "standard" for short range EVs will be 100+ miles and the 200 mile range Bolt will have been out for more than a year. Tesla may even have sold a Model 3 by then. I think the early 80 mile range cars will be yesterday's news and their value will reflect that.

For the record, my residual (2015 SEL,7500 mile/yr lease) is $13,100. I would certainly consider buying it at end of term given the right offer but I can't imagine paying $13k for it.

I am taking a wait and see on the battery and how it ages range wise in California heat, much like the Nissan Leaf. If it does not last, and ends up being replaced under warranty due to failure of the battery chemistry, in the 8 year 100,000 mile warranty not being 70%, then, once it gets a new battery, it will be put up for sale with a new battery. I expect my diesel TDI's to go 250 to 300,000 miles or more with out a big fat repair bill, unlike the price of a replacement battery for an e-Golf. I have 8 years to see how it goes, with that battery.

If the price of fuel goes up again in the timeline I am looking at, the price of a used e-Golf is then likely to go up, if electricity is still cheap.

 

[mfennell]

If it does not last, and ends up being replaced under warranty due to failure of the battery chemistry, in the 8 year 100,000 mile warranty not being 70%, then, once it gets a new battery, it will be put up for sale with a new battery.

Woohoo! I get a chance to tell JT to RTFM.

I initially had similar thoughts but VW does not commit to giving you a new battery, only to refurbishing to the 70% threshold. This was discussed on the FB page and Michael posted the relevant text.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1214451301902237&set=p.1214451301902237&type=3&theater

 

[JoulesThief]

If it does not last, and ends up being replaced under warranty due to failure of the battery chemistry, in the 8 year 100,000 mile warranty not being 70%, then, once it gets a new battery, it will be put up for sale with a new battery.

Woohoo! I get a chance to tell JT to RTFM.

I initially had similar thoughts but VW does not commit to giving you a new battery, only to refurbishing to the 70% threshold. This was discussed on the FB page and Michael posted the relevant text.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1214451301902237&set=p.1214451301902237&type=3&theater

And you think the potential buyer of a used e-Golf is going to know this. LOL. VW can't even refurbish engines, or HPFP's or injectors. My e-Golf may end up a museum piece. I'm not too worried about it's residual value, or resale value. There's plenty of people further down the line economically that will be looking for a used instead of new electric car.

A car, to me, is a form of transportation, it's not an investment. It's a tool, it depreciates, and I accept it. Part of the cost of owning your own form of transportation. If I was worried about cost of transportation, I'd ride my bicycle everywhere I could.