Good deal?

[johnnylingo]

So after all is said and done you are driving an e-Golf for 175/mo. I'd say that's a good deal on a great car.

Yep that puts it to ~$6200 which is a nice number for a 2016 SE. Sunnyvale is now doing $47/month with $4600 down which adds up to about that same amount. Focus Electric goes for the same rate and unless you need leather seats, the e-Golf is the better deal.

Incidentally, I walked thru Sunnyvale's lot this afternoon and was shocked to see over 60 e-Golfs baking in the summer sun. I would take that as a sign they may skip the 2017 model year and release the 2018s early with increased range.

 

[miimura]

Yes, inventory in the Northern California is definitely up. Last I looked, Capitol, Sunnyvale, Hayward, and a couple others have 50+ each. 590 cars within 200 miles of San Francisco, 302 cars within 200 miles of Beverly Hills, and a total of 1064 showing nationwide. I would have better counts, but Cars.com changed their site so it does not readily give counts per dealer any more.

 

[JoulesThief]

Yes, inventory in the Northern California is definitely up. Last I looked, Capitol, Sunnyvale, Hayward, and a couple others have 50+ each. 590 cars within 200 miles of San Francisco, 302 cars within 200 miles of Beverly Hills, and a total of 1064 showing nationwide. I would have better counts, but Cars.com changed their site so it does not readily give counts per dealer any more.

That may very well be the last of the 2016's that were produced in May of 2016, got on the boat, and ended up at the VW hubs, in San Diego, Houston and who knows where else for the North East and South East. Last 6 digits of the VIN numbers will probably begin with 912XXX

 

[Sphinx]

So, I'm interested in picking up an e-golf and wanted to find out a couple of things. 1) does the VW partner program really help as compared to what you guys are normally seeing? 2) what kind of money factor and residuals are you guys getting for a 12K mile lease?

I'm trying to figure out what kind of a deal I can expect on with VW Partner for a 12K, zero down lease for 36 months (Bay Area). Any thoughts would be appreciated.

 

[johnnylingo]

I can't comment on the VW partner program (never heard of it, actually) but assuming good credit it's common to see money factor around 0.001 right now, which translates to a 2.4% interest rate. Number of miles per year shouldn't affect the money factor, only the residual.

 

[Sphinx]

I can't comment on the VW partner program (never heard of it, actually) but assuming good credit it's common to see money factor around 0.001 right now, which translates to a 2.4% interest rate. Number of miles per year shouldn't affect the money factor, only the residual.

http://www.vwpartnerprogram.com/

VW's version of Nissan's VPP

 

[bizzle]

In the past, the partner program was $500 below invoice but not stackable with other incentives. Is that the program you're referring to? If so, I think everyone here has been able to negotiate well below $500 under invoice on our own so the program would't net you a better price.

I also can't comment on the money factor or residual because times have changed significantly since last year. I don't have my paperwork in front of me, but I believe my money factor was something around .000001 or basically 0% interest and the residual ended up being around 11K (I can't remember the %).

Here is what I know: we negotiated for 10K/year (the difference between that and 7500 was around 350 dollars--I think the person running the calculations mentioned it was a very small difference, about 1% residual), with extended lease warranty coverage (around $600), and we managed to get that for about $199/month (after a price match, $2K loyalty, and federal incentives).

That was with $0 out of pocket when we drove away.

The problem I've had with negotiating on the eGolf over the past couple years that we went in until we finally got one down to our desired price was that the federal incentives pull it way under invoice and there are usually some kind of dealer incentive to get you in the door and all of that combined with the fact that I'm pretty sure invoice is already losing VW money and the dealers just have not historically been motivated to move them off the lot with huge bargaining reductions. The partner program may even exclude EVs due to that reasoning...or it might in the future if/when VW brings more over here as they claimed they would.

The only reason we were able to negotiate this round (last year) was because VW sales were deadlocked, the dealers were struggling, the brand was struggling, they were embroiled in a catastrophic PR and legal war, and it was the end of the month/around Memorial Day all kinds of things broiling into a perfect storm. People who were willing to take an earlier model basically stole them off the lots, like JoulesThief did. I really wanted CarPlay instead of the old MDI crap that I hated in my 2012 TDI so that was the trade-off I went with, but I still did very well on the deal (not without a *lot* of legwork, though).

I don't know that any of those circumstances are in play this time around. Just as an aside, I have KBB updating me on my TDIs value monthly and ever since dieselgate it's been falling every month but an email I received a few minutes ago informed me that the value had risen this past month 3%. VW may not feel a whole lot of pressure to relieve itself of a vehicle that is in all likelihood losing it and its dealer network money.

 

[johnnylingo]

VW sales were deadlocked, the dealers were struggling, the brand was struggling, they were embroiled in a catastrophic PR and legal war, and it was the end of the month/around Memorial Day all kinds of things broiling into a perfect storm...I don't know that any of those circumstances are in play this time around.

I feel quite strongly there will be another "perfect storm" scenario, especially for California, in the coming months.

1. As it stands now, California's $2500 CVRP is not funded. Dealers have already dropped prices to compensate, but they will have to go further to make up the difference for buyers. Even if outside CA, our state makes for such a high percentage of EV sales, VW will have to take notice and throw in a factory rebate to help.
   
2. Mid/late summer is typically a slow time for sales and it's odd to see inventory this high. I'm sure it's because these 2016.5 models will have to last until the 2018s hit in early 2017. VW made this decision without consideration of point #1.
   
3. The 2017 i3 and its 115 mile range should hit around Labor day. Even though it's a pricier car, the lease cost is close to the e-Golf SEL thanks to BMW's bullish residual values, which in my opinion they've deliberately inflated. Chevy appears on pace to have the Bolt hit in mid-fall and of course there's the Tesla model 3 on the horizon. It's not long before anything with under 100 mile range will be a tough sell.
   
4. We've got an election coming up, and a very unpredictable one. Until Hillary has it in the bag, there's going to be a tightening of the belt for investors, businesses, and really anyone with basic historic and economic knowledge. Should Trump win, the markets will crash.
   
5. The Brexit has dropped already low interest rates even lower, and they should stay down there until after the election. Interest rates don't have much of an affect on car sales, but to go from a 3% interest rate down to 2.4% knocks $400 of a 36 month lease for an SE and $500 for an SEL. That's not chump change.

 

[JoulesThief]

VW sales were deadlocked, the dealers were struggling, the brand was struggling, they were embroiled in a catastrophic PR and legal war, and it was the end of the month/around Memorial Day all kinds of things broiling into a perfect storm...I don't know that any of those circumstances are in play this time around.

I feel quite strongly there will be another "perfect storm" scenario, especially for California, in the coming months.

1. As it stands now, California's $2500 CVRP is not funded. Dealers have already dropped prices to compensate, but they will have to go further to make up the difference for buyers. Even if outside CA, our state makes for such a high percentage of EV sales, VW will have to take notice and throw in a factory rebate to help.
   
2. Mid/late summer is typically a slow time for sales and it's odd to see inventory this high. I'm sure it's because these 2016.5 models will have to last until the 2018s hit in early 2017. VW made this decision without consideration of point #1.
   
3. The 2017 i3 and its 115 mile range should hit around Labor day. Even though it's a pricier car, the lease cost is close to the e-Golf SEL thanks to BMW's bullish residual values, which in my opinion they've deliberately inflated. Chevy appears on pace to have the Bolt hit in mid-fall and of course there's the Tesla model 3 on the horizon. It's not long before anything with under 100 mile range will be a tough sell.
   
4. We've got an election coming up, and a very unpredictable one. Until Hillary has it in the bag, there's going to be a tightening of the belt for investors, businesses, and really anyone with basic historic and economic knowledge. Should Trump win, the markets will crash.
   
5. The Brexit has dropped already low interest rates even lower, and they should stay down there until after the election. Interest rates don't have much of an affect on car sales, but to go from a 3% interest rate down to 2.4% knocks $400 of a 36 month lease for an SE and $500 for an SEL. That's not chump change.

False assumptions Hillary will have it in the bag, nice psychological BS "projecting" though, on who you'd like to win. Predicting Markets will crash if Trump is elected is FUD. They may go up, they may go down, the may rebound quickly, they may take some time to rebound. But business will keep on going no matter who gets elected. No one knows who will win, or what will happen to the markets. It's all just speculation at this point.

Maybe come back and post here when you actually have and OWN an e-golf, instead of being on the sidelines for a year or so, without one for your daily driver.


Perfect storms are where you find them. It's up to you to read the signs or signals, do a lot of legwork, and make the superb deals happen. It is and always will be a lot of hard work. There are no shortcuts, shop, pay your dues, be flexible, bide your time, and strike when you think the deal is best for you with making an offer.

Money talks, BS walks. Much easier to hammer out a great deal if you have money and your credit is great along with steady job history and employment.

 

[johnnylingo]

nice psychological BS "projecting" though, on who you'd like to win. Predicting Markets will crash if Trump is elected is FUD. It's all just speculation at this point.

Yes, it's speculation on who will win the election, how close it will be, and what will occur afterwards. Thanks for clearing that up, captain obvious. :roll:

But this is a fact: investors fear uncertainty, and Trump is much more unpredictable on foreign policy, trade agreements, and immigration than HRC. I assume his talk is hot air, but the markets may take a while to reach that conclusion.

Maybe come back and post here when you actually have and OWN an e-golf

If this is what being retired does to you, I think I'll keep working til I drop dead like my grandpa did :lol:

I'm actually renting one on Monday, after concluding there's no way I could commit until I've verified the range is adequate to get me from Santa Cruz to Sunnyvale and back on a single charge. I love the e-Golf, but have seen too many cases of buyer's remorse. The Volt and i3 are great choices too.

 

[bizzle]

One thing VW has up its sleeve in comparison to Chevy and Tesla is that the federal incentives will run out sometime this year for Chevy and pretty close to the Model 3's launch for Tesla. Bolt purchasers will have about a month or so to get the full $7,500 and Model 3 purchasers will be lucky to even get their vehicles within the next two years, let alone any federal monies. It's one of the major considerations that are pushing me into an early Volt/Bolt acquisition before the eGolf's fate is decided. It's not a big deal in the sense that we always planned to transition into a dual electric family, but I have an older ALH beetle that I could use for distance travel after we turn the JSW in for buyback and would prefer not to have a second car payment for a few years since we don't *need* a fourth car.

I haven't actually seen any Southern California dealers dropping their prices to compensate for the loss of the state rebate. The sales prices they post are always a mix of moving the shells around but still ending up at the same price.

 

[JoulesThief]

nice psychological BS "projecting" though, on who you'd like to win. Predicting Markets will crash if Trump is elected is FUD. It's all just speculation at this point.

Yes, it's speculation on who will win the election, how close it will be, and what will occur afterwards. Thanks for clearing that up, captain obvious. :roll:

But this is a fact: investors fear uncertainty, and Trump is much more unpredictable on foreign policy, trade agreements, and immigration than HRC. I assume his talk is hot air, but the markets may take a while to reach that conclusion.

Maybe come back and post here when you actually have and OWN an e-golf

If this is what being retired does to you, I think I'll keep working til I drop dead like my grandpa did :lol:

I'm actually renting one on Monday, after concluding there's no way I could commit until I've verified the range is adequate to get me from Santa Cruz to Sunnyvale and back on a single charge. I love the e-Golf, but have seen too many cases of buyer's remorse. The Volt and i3 are great choices too.

Save your money on the rental... you won't be satisfied on the range you get. Certainly not when the last 18 miles are locked down in Eco or Eco+ limited mode.

Try plugging in Nissan Leaf Beta Mode, it's close enough to an e-Golf. Not much to spare, when the battery is new. certainly less when battery is down to 70% of new, no telling how many miles it takes for that to happen.

https://evtripplanner.com/planner/

 

[miimura]

I'm actually renting one on Monday, after concluding there's no way I could commit until I've verified the range is adequate to get me from Santa Cruz to Sunnyvale and back on a single charge. I love the e-Golf, but have seen too many cases of buyer's remorse. The Volt and i3 are great choices too.

If you live in Santa Cruz and work in Sunnyvale, you will have no trouble at all making the round trip every day. The average speed is lower than normal interstate highway driving and as long as you make the most of B mode and stay off the friction brakes on 17 you will make it easily. The speed of commute traffic the direction you're going will give you even more of an energy buffer. The only thing that would cause trouble is if you get stuck in a freak snow flurry at the summit and the CHP closes the road and you try to keep warm with the heater for an hour or two. Then, you might get stuck. Although, you could probably regen your way back down the hill to ChargePoint HQ in Campbell and fast charge there to make it back over the hill after running low in the cold. Bay Area people all know how unlikely this scenario is.

By the way, the range estimates that the car will give you will cause you ulcers if you take them to heart. When you're going uphill, the car assumes you're going uphill for the rest of the trip, which you obviously won't be. Just watch the battery level meter at the bottom of the speedometer.

 

[johnnylingo]

The average speed is lower than normal interstate highway driving and as long as you make the most of B mode and stay off the friction brakes on 17 you will make it easily. The speed of commute traffic the direction you're going will give you even more of an energy buffer.

I am in the office 10:30 AM - 6:00 PM, so avoid traffic for the most part. I still do hit a stack or two but it's usually around the Los Gatos Highway 9 exit where the road is flat. BTW you need to do 65-70 mph in Los Gatos and Scotts Valley just to keep up, so I consider it a highway drive and am not counting on eco+ or regen to help much. But we'll see. I'll post the results in my thread from last year.

The only thing that would cause trouble is if you get stuck in a freak snow flurry at the summit

The much bigger risk is rain - figgin' idiots drive that road on bald tires and don't adjust speed and following distance when it's wet. I avoid this by simply working from home; if I absolutely need to be somewhere, I'll be taking the Subaru (trade-in appraisal was only $1000...sigh). The safety of both cars should be equal, but the Subaru is already beat up.

 

[johnnylingo]

Bolt purchasers will have about a month or so to get the full $7,500 and Model 3 purchasers will be lucky to even get their vehicles within the next two years, let alone any federal monies.

This a good point. However, I know Obama has always wanted to if anything raise the credit to $10k and would think he'd find a way to extend the pools (especially for GM and Tesla) in his lame duck session, especially if the torch is being passed to Trump. But we'll see; it's Washington and we certainly can't rely on Congress for any help either way :lol:

Also worth mentioning: BMW just announced they won't be doing the $7500 credit on 2017 i3 leases until the 2016s have been cleared out. I take it as a sign they can't afford to firesale the 2016s the way they did with the 2015s and 2014s at 20% off MSRP.

 

[Sphinx]

In the past, the partner program was $500 below invoice but not stackable with other incentives. Is that the program you're referring to? If so, I think everyone here has been able to negotiate well below $500 under invoice on our own so the program would't net you a better price.

According to the disclosure, it is $500 under invoice, but stackable. Can't be applied to Golf R - only exclusion.

 

[bizzle]

In the past, the partner program was $500 below invoice but not stackable with other incentives. Is that the program you're referring to? If so, I think everyone here has been able to negotiate well below $500 under invoice on our own so the program would't net you a better price.

According to the disclosure, it is $500 under invoice, but stackable. Can't be applied to Golf R - only exclusion.

That makes it more interesting, but if I'm not mistaken you're supposed to tell them up front to be eligible. Even stacking with other incentives I suspect the dealership would just reduce whatever they would have been willing to negotiate by $500 so it'd be a wash (we started negotiations a few thousand under invoice before incentives for our lease).

 

[JoulesThief]

I didn't negotiate at all. I told the dealership that I was a loyal VW owner, that I owned 3 TDI's currently, and I requested their very best internet price, that I was ready to do the deal in a day or two, and that I qualified for VW owner loyalty package or $2000. I gave them my email address, told them I wasn't going to haggle at all, it was either going to be yes or no, I'll take it. MSRP was $36,300, car was an on the dealership lot, no trade in, and no inter dealership trade car, it was already on their lot. About 2 weeks after dieselgate scandal broke, and VW was in the news daily. They came back with about $25,200- 25,300, if I recall correctly.

Take off $2500 state rebate (no longer funded) and $7500 federal tax credit that I qualified for, and it was $15,200 or so, before taxes, license, registration and transfer fees.

They made me an offer I couldn't refuse.

Is my 2015 quirky? Of course it is, like all VW's. But I run it with almost all ancillaries turned off, almost all the time. I probably have a life time average of 5.5 miles per kwh in the battery. I am not certain if it's the heat, or if the kwh on my battery has decreased, bu t I don't believe I have a full 21kw of useable battery left at 6200 miles perhaps somewhere like 20.5 to 20.7kw, if I total miles driven and miles left on the battery and divide by miles per kwh. Car was bought Oct 6th, was a May 2015 build.

I average about 3 trips between recharges, usually 80 to 95 miles between recharging.

Last nights recharge pics.

I used 18.81 kw to recharge the battery in 2 hours and 37 minutes @ 240v and 30 amps. The cars battery took about 90% of that, about 16.93 kw. Probably 9- 10% was lost during the recharge process.

I did NOT fully charge last night, I probably had another 20 minutes of charging to go, to add maybe 0.8 kw to top charge the battery fully.

The last 20 minutes, the current rate in amps drops off kind of fast, taking 10 minutes to perhaps add 0.55 kwh and another 10 minutes to add 0.25 kwh. At regular charging rated in bulk charge mode at 240V and 30 amps, that's about 5 to 5.5 minutes of charging time, when the battery is not nearly full.

I think most people here will probably see more like 4 to 4.5 miles per kwh, depending on not as efficient driving habits, and use of power sucking features on the car, which I can't see helping the longevity of the battery life at all.

 

[bizzle]

Not negotiating at all would be walking on to the lot with your checkbook and writing a check for MSRP and driving away. Explaining a set of factors to a seller why they should sell to you at a lower than asking price and the seller responding with a new asking price is "negotiating."

 

[Sphinx]

So, what kind of money is VW kicking in on these leases? Only thing I could find online was 7500, but I figure that's the federal incentive.