What do you plan to do when your lease is up?

[user 703]

Curious what you plan to do when your lease is up.

I have 2+ years to go. I like some aspects of the e-Golf (form factor, dynamics, HOV sticker, avoiding VW dealerships for overpriced service) and dislike some (range/capacity, "disinterested" engineering/controls). For short commutes and city driving the e-Golf is a good choice, though.

What concerns me is what battery capacity I will have left after three years of driving (estimating 25,000 miles which is on the low end), and if I were to keep the car what capacity will be left after, say, six years. The battery is not cooled and trusting VW's engineering has become a bit more challenging lately. Another issue is mechanics/build - this is a heavy car and it does not seem VW has strengthened/upgraded the suspension which may manifest itself in a slew of issues.

Even if the battery holds up ok, it would seem that by 2018 other electric cars will offer batteries with 40-120 kwh, and by 2021 capacity will yet again have moved up while my e-Golf most likely would operate below 20 kwh at that time. I think it would be very difficult to sell a car that would under-perform other electric cars by a wide margin (or be of no interest because a lack of range makes it a no go for anyone with a long-ish commute).

Someone on this forum mention that electric cars are more gadgets than cars in this regard and I agree (i.e. no-one will pay anything of substance for a six year old laptop). Interested in your perspectives.

 

[cctop]

The reason I decided to lease instead of buy (the first time I've ever leased a car) is exactly because of the issues you name, most significantly that battery technology is advancing so rapidly that by 2018 other cars will greatly surpass this one.

I'll have to see what resale values are at the end of my lease, but I'm expecting my residual value will have to be cut at least in half before I would consider buying the car.

As the driver of a 2016 SE I'll also have the benefit of seeing what happens to the 2015 cars as they come off warranty.

 

[johnnylingo]

My e-Golf is short-term solution, acting as a commuter car until the ones with greater range arrive in 2017-2018. While I have 21 months remaining on the lease, I am almost certain I'll be getting out before then. Early next summer I'll have a decision to make and think it'll be one of the following:

• If I change jobs and no longer need it for commuting, offer a lease transfer. I pay around $175/month with the down payment and drive-off fees factored in, and would likely need to drop that to $100/month for the new lessee
  
• If I am still using the car, accelerate the remaining payments and then buy for the residual of $13,777. This means I've sunk in around $19,000 total. When I find the right EV to replace it, either sell outright or trade in. It's dawned on me that by this time next year, a 2016 SE even with low miles could have a fair market value under $15k, which means I've taken a large hit by going this route. It some ways it's almost better to buy out now and sell or trade while the values are still fairly high. Or, conversely, wait until the lease is over and hope VW drops the residual.

Either way, I do not plan on keeping this e-Golf long term. I have too many concerns about reliability, Volkswagen's reputation for weaseling out of warranty claims, and the sudden depreciation sure to come when 200 mile ranges become mainstream. Any evidence of battery degradation would be an addition reason.

Regarding the suspension, is the e-Golf different from a regular Golf? I though weights were roughly the same.

 

[user 703]

Thanks and all good points.

Three comments:
[*] The e-Golf is around 300 pounds heavier than an ICE 2017 Golf. Weight is also differently distributed (lower and I would think possibly more heavy in the back). This is quite noticeable when driving over speed bumps/humps. At minimum this is bound to start shaking stuff loose over time (apparently a "feature" in Teslas), at worst it might impair the suspension itself.
[*] VW offers a limited warranty of up 70% battery capacity up to 100,000 miles. But this covers total and not usable capacity. I would not be surprised if usable capacity in older, degraded batteries declines disproportionately. And who is to stop VW from claiming that two consecutive fast charges voided the limited warranty? At any rate, trying to sell a 65-80 actual miles range car in a few years when new EVs offer 200+ miles will be tough.
[*] BMW is offering battery upgrades for the i3 (very expensive, however). The e-Golf would not seem to be a suitable target value/cost-wise for either VW or owners. Which leaves a heavily discounted residual as one of the few ways to extend ownership. It will be interesting to see if VW will go down this route.

 

[johnnylingo]

Which leaves a heavily discounted residual as one of the few ways to extend ownership. It will be interesting to see if VW will go down this route.

I have doubts, because it was assumed BMW would do with the i3s and so far they have not. The 2014s that had residuals of over $30k are being thrown on the used car lots where they sell for $20-25k. Doesn't seem to make financial sense, but then again BMW heavily promotes certified pre-owned so perhaps they have unique motives.