Bay Area leases

[user 1475]

Apologies if this has been covered recently...

Looking to lease an e-Golf in the SF Bay Area. Emailed a Sacramento dealer and got a quote of $457/mo for an SEL with quick charge. That is roughly $300 MORE per month than my 500e was. I know the 500e is a cheap car with 2 less doors, etc., but I don't really need the extra doors and such - just a full electric to run errands with. I've driven ICE Golfs and really like them.

I assume that the lease is so high because the 2018s just came out and the demand is so high, but is there any hope that the price will come down from $457/mo ? I can lease a 330 BMW for that!

Also - will my local dealers still have any 2017s around to lease or is that wishful thinking?

Thanks,
Grateful Noob

 

[msvphoto]

Sunnyvale VW seem to be the ones with best selection and offering best deals from what I have seen on this forum.

We bought our 2015 SEL used from Capital VW in November 2017 and it was the best dealership car buying experience in my life (and I have bought a lot of cars over the years).

2017s are getting scarce I gather, so maybe buy used or wait for 2018s. $457 a month is outrageously high.

 

[johnnylingo]

I assume that the lease is so high because the 2018s just came out and the demand is so high, but is there any hope that the price will come down from $457/mo ? I can lease a 330 BMW for that!

Seems not so much that demand is high than supply is very low. I'm starting to look around since I've got 3 months left..Sunnyvale has two in stock, Hayward has one, and Capital has zero. Back in 2016 when everyone got killer deals, they had 50-100 each.

The inventory situation in SoCal looks to be even worse, and I am not optimistic this will change over the summer . There's 21 days left to get $10,000 of an i3 purchase which I'm tempted to jump on, but with only 100 miles range and rapid depreciation, that isn't a great bargain either.

For what it's worth the Bolt has become quite scarce too. I believe GM has downscaled production so it's unlikely that will improve anytime soon.

 

[cctop]

This is a great blog for anybody looking to lease an electric vehicle:

http://ev-vin.blogspot.com/

Scroll down to the green boxes to see VW eGolf deals specifically.

Looking at that page I'd say that now is a terrible time to lease an eGolf. The prices are almost double the historical average.

 

[johnnylingo]

Very cool site. Great deals on the Clarity, Soul, and Volt right now. Everything else...not so much :|

I imagine EV production and pricing is based heavily on who needs CARB ZEV credits.

 

[RonDawg]

Looking at that page I'd say that now is a terrible time to lease an eGolf. The prices are almost double the historical average.

Yeah I recently realized how good a deal I got on my 2015 when I tried to find its replacement. The deals were nowhere near as good as 3 years previously. I would have to put down more money and pay more every month, and that's downgrading to an SE. I ended up buying out my lease for less than what it would be going for on the used car market.

 

[slk23]

My Golf TDI is nearing the decision point for emissions modification vs. buyback so I've also been looking at leases in the S.F. Bay Area. No good deals to be found which is odd since I'd think they would need to clear the 2017 e-Golfs out. The only offer worth noting is $8k off the purchase of an SEL. And if they are advertising that discount I wonder how much more could be negotiated. But I still can't talk myself into spending $10k-$12k over what I'd get for my TDI with the buyback program when I can run the TDI on renewable diesel for a few more years until the longer range ID models arrive.

 

[johnnylingo]

I ended up buying out my lease for less than what it would be going for on the used car market.

I'll likely be doing the same in July. Certainly never thought that would be the way I'd go, especially with a 100 mile commute now. But buying my 2016 SE for $13.5k is a friggin' bargain compared to what's out there right now. I can then trade it in for something towards end of year when pricing is more favorable.

The only offer worth noting is $8k off the purchase of an SEL.

That's a pretty good offer, even if it's a 2017 Model year. What dealer was that from?

 

[slk23]

That's a pretty good offer, even if it's a 2017 Model year. What dealer was that from?

Serramonte. And Sonnen was offering a $7.5k discount.

 

[RonDawg]

No good deals to be found which is odd since I'd think they would need to clear the 2017 e-Golfs out.

VW doesn't need to "clear" them as stock on 2017 eGolfs is low and AFAIK the 2018's aren't in US dealers yet. According to Cars.com, there aren't even any new eGolfs in all of SoCal, the nearest one being in Santa Maria. The next closest dealers with any new eGolfs are in the Bay Area/Sacramento, and then in Oregon.

Last month I came close to buying a 2017 with a September 2017 build date but the dealer wouldn't budge much on price. Normally dealers get nervous if the car sits on their lot more than 30 days, as they lose any manufacturer to dealer incentives. They especially get antsy if it's more than 60 days as they now have to start paying interest on the loan to purchase the car from the manufacturer, backdated to the day they took possession off the truck.

The reason the SEL's are being discounted is because at MSRP it cannot compete with the Bolt and (if Elon ever decides to make them) the base Model 3 with their 200+ mile ranges for about the same price. By discounting them heavily they become very comparable to the new Leaf despite about a 25 mile range deficit.

 

[slk23]

VW doesn't need to "clear" them as stock on 2017 eGolfs is low and AFAIK the 2018's aren't in US dealers yet. According to Cars.com, there aren't even any new eGolfs in all of SoCal, the nearest one being in Santa Maria. The next closest dealers with any new eGolfs are in the Bay Area/Sacramento, and then in Oregon.

Last month I came close to buying a 2017 with a September 2017 build date but the dealer wouldn't budge much on price. Normally dealers get nervous if the car sits on their lot more than 30 days, as they lose any manufacturer to dealer incentives. They especially get antsy if it's more than 60 days as they now have to start paying interest on the loan to purchase the car from the manufacturer, backdated to the day they took possession off the truck.

The reason the SEL's are being discounted is because at MSRP it cannot compete with the Bolt and (if Elon ever decides to make them) the base Model 3 with their 200+ mile ranges for about the same price. By discounting them heavily they become very comparable to the new Leaf despite about a 25 mile range deficit.

VW needs the 2017s off the lots before the 2018s are released. It appears that VW (corporate) is offering a large incentive on the 2017 e-Golf to the dealers and I believe that's the reason for the advertised $7k-$8k discounts. I wouldn't be surprised if the 2018s are already waiting at the ports here in the USA; they will probably be at the dealers next month. That's the sense I get from watching the local inventory dwindle.

 

[RonDawg]

I can tell you from recent (within the last month) experience that VWoA is NOT offering big incentives to dealers, at least for the SE. They're doing so for the SEL because again at MSRP it simply cannot compete with 200+ mile EVs for about the same price, even factoring in a cheap-looking interior with uncomfortable seats (Bolt) or inconsistent build quality with uncertain reliability (Tesla Model 3).

There are too few 2017's left for them to be a factor in whether or not to release the 2018's. Many if not most dealers in the 11 states where it's sold have zero new eGolfs, and as I mentioned there's nothing left south of the Grapevine. Remember they still need to sell x number of ZEV-compliant cars or else buy credits from Nissan/Tesla/GM or pay a fine (of which they've paid a lot in the last year or so for dieselgate).

 

[johnnylingo]

They're doing so for the SEL because again at MSRP it simply cannot compete with 200+ mile EVs for about the same price

This makes sense, and we've seen it before. I remember last year a few folks posted getting an SEL for only slightly more than an SE w/ DCFC. The heat pump and LED headlights are worth $1k by themselves, so it's a nice deal even if you don't need all the bells as whistles of the SEL trim.

Remember they still need to sell x number of ZEV-compliant cars or else buy credits from Nissan/Tesla/GM

I believe miimura says these numbers are based on model year, not year of sale. So yes, the 2018s may be irrelevant. This also would explain why they weren't in a rush to get the 2017s to dealers and what was promised as a Spring 2017 date slipped to Fall.

 

[slk23]

VW can't send 2018 e-Golfs to the dealers while there are any significant number of 2017s still on the lots. Inventory has been declining because VW isn't shipping any more 2017s in preparation for the arrival of the 2018s. I don't understand exactly how the game is played, but their e-Golf model year schedule is based on CARB credits and they have apparently finally decided at this late date to move on to the 2018 e-Golfs. I contend that we will see them arrive sometime in the next 8 weeks or so.

Sonnen VW was advertising a $7,500 discount "on all remaining 2017 e-Golf SE and SEL models" while Serramonte was offering an $8,000 discount on SELs. So I wouldn't say it's conclusive that the VW corporate incentive has only been for SELs. IMHO it looks like an effort to clear out inventory. However, I do hope you're right that at least part of their motivation is to remain competitive with the Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model 3. That means they will likely continue the large discounts when the 2018 e-Golfs arrive this summer (and I'll be shopping for one).

According to InsideEVs e-Golf sales in the USA have averaged around 300/month. In 2018 the average so far has been more like 200/month. I'm hopeful VW will do something to bolster sales such as adding features (e.g. digital cockpit) and lowering the price.

 

[RonDawg]

VW can't send 2018 e-Golfs to the dealers while there are any significant number of 2017s still on the lots.

I'd like to know what your idea of "significant number" is as from my research, less than 50 exist throughout the country, with large swaths (including SoCal) being completely bereft of new eGolfs.

The only place you'll find those deals is the Bay Area, as that's where the majority of the remaining stock seem to be at.

 

[slk23]

I'd like to know what your idea of "significant number" is as from my research, less than 50 exist throughout the country, with large swaths (including SoCal) being completely bereft of new eGolfs.

The only place you'll find those deals is the Bay Area, as that's where the majority of the remaining stock seem to be at.

Is it your opinion that VW will continue to sell 2017 e-Golfs in the USA? How long do you think they'll do that?

IMHO stock is low and getting lower because VW is getting ready to release the 2018s. They would naturally do some coordination to give their dealers a chance to sell remaining 2017 stock before any announcements concerning the 2018 e-Golfs are made. Based on declining inventory, even in the S.F. Bay Area, I'm hopeful the 2018s will arrive by mid-summer.

 

[johnnylingo]

Based on declining inventory, even in the S.F. Bay Area, I'm hopeful the 2018s will arrive by mid-summer.

That's when they arrived last year. Started to trickle in around June, but based on their sales figures and just observation there weren't nearly same number as in 2016. I have no reason to think this year will be any different.

FYI if you live in Santa Cruz, Monterey, or San Benito counties, there should be a local $2000 rebate from March to June. Those funds get depleted fast so if you live in those counties and are on the fence, I'd jump on a 2017 now rather than waiting for a 2018.

 

[NurStrom]

Based on declining inventory, even in the S.F. Bay Area, I'm hopeful the 2018s will arrive by mid-summer.

I was informed by two SoCal GMs that the '18s will arrive late this year at best...high probability early '19.