2018: Keep, upgrade, swap, or return e-Golf

[user 703]

Just curious what you are planning to do when your lease is up in 2018.

Mine will be up in early 2018. At that time, most current EVs will be at 200+ miles range. My 2016 SEL will be at ~90 miles range (no degradation so far). The low range is the single biggest draw back of this car.

- I could keep it though I am wondering what I would do with a 2016 SEL in, say, 2021 at ~80 miles range? Who would buy such an EV?
- I would be surprised if a battery upgrade would become available. Even if so, it might be too expensive.
- Swapping for another VW electric car? I don't know what VW has in the pipeline for early 2018 but for e-Golfs.
- A return is easy, of course.

While I know my commuting needs etc, I am just wondering what VW will come up with. VW is under a consent order to get many, many 1,000s of new EVs on the road (in California) but it I have not seen any articulated direction or product road map as from other car makers.

Would appreciate comments.

 

[johnnylingo]

My 2016 SE lease will be up on July 31st, 2018. My thoughts on the 3 options...

Keeping: Very unlikely. Residual will be $13.7k, so after sales tax $15k. Perhaps I could "flip" the car and sell it for $16k, but probably not worth the risk/hassle. I'm very much looking forward to something with more range.

Swap: Can't see myself upgrading to a newer e-Golf, unless the batteries have been moved to 48 kWh. 100 miles range with DCFC is adequate most of the time, however it just isn't practical to commit to a relatively short range with the Bolt and Model 3 available for not that much more.

Return: This is my most likely path, and then shopping for a BMW i3 REx. Those things are currently depreciating at $3-5k/year, so by next summer I should be able to get a 2015 fully loaded for under $20k. The only thing holding me back have been horror stories of maintenance issues, but they seem relatively rare.

Then there's a 4th option of doing giving it up sooner via lease takeover. If I stumble across and insane deal on an i3, I may do that still.

 

[miimura]

My 2015 LE lease is up in April 2018. The residual is $13,022. Used LE models are listed for sale for about $15,000 today. I'm sure they will come down to my residual or less by the time my turn-in date comes. So, I'm certain to just turn it in.

I am a pre-reveal 3/31/16 Tesla Model 3 reservation holder, so I will have no trouble getting one in the SF Bay Area before the lease is up, even if I wait for the Base model. A 5 year loan on the Model 3 will be less than the sum of the RAV4 EV and e-Golf payments. The 5 year 0% loan on the RAV4 EV will end around the same time as the e-Golf turn-in.

Anyway, my wife has the final say and she wants a car bigger than the e-Golf. She is warming up to the Model 3, but I will steer her to a plug-in car of some sort. The next most appealing larger car is the upcoming Volvo XC-60 T8 PHEV, but we really don't need two SUVs and the XC-60 plus the Model 3 will bust the budget even if I get top dollar for the RAV.

 

[eGolfeGirl]

My 2015 SEL lease ends in April. I just cracked 15000 miles so I've barely driven the car but I've experience range anxiety enough times to know I won't be keeping it. Also the unfixable bugs from day one are just too annoying.

I have a Tesla reservation that's supposedly ready right when my lease expires but Tesla is notorious for missing deadlines. Also it may be too big for my taste. I test drove the Bolt and it was okay but the top of the line one for $45K seemed nuts compared to a Tesla. I tested the older Leaf but it wasn't for me. Maybe the new one with longer range will be nicer.

I have no idea what the residual is on the eGolf cause I never had any intention of keeping it. But whatever it is they want for the car, I would only consider buying it if I could get it for around $6000. It's not worth any more than that to me. Let VW try to sell a gently used EV with <110 range for $16,000. You can find tons of used electric Fiats for around $6000 with similar crummy range.

 

[bizzle]

Our lease ends in October and we'll only keep it if VW gives it to us (for like $6K). I doubt that will happen and I'm not even sure we'll be seeing 200ish mile range eGolfs so this is likely our last. I'm going to be looking at the Bolt and Kia Niro PHEV...or maybe an eTron depending on what a 2016 will be going for by then.

 

[RonDawg]

I'm likely keeping mine, as long as no more issues crop up (had to have the A/C pressure sensor switch replaced under warranty back in March). It has less than 15k miles and by the time the lease is done it will be 2/3 paid off from MSRP, thanks to the government incentives and VW's own "Year End Event" price slash. It won't have the range of the 2018's but that's what the Alltrack is for.

I would prefer to keep commuting miles off the Alltrack (it's used primarily for long distance trips) as I plan on keeping that 10 or more years. And there's really nothing else I would want for the same price as the residual of my eGolf. I might be able to get a used one cheaper (so far that doesn't appear to be the case though) but with any used car you're always taking a chance. At least my eGolf I know hasn't been crashed, or in a flood, etc.

 

[forbin404]

Our lease ends in October and we'll only keep it if VW gives it to us (for like $6K). I doubt that will happen and I'm not even sure we'll be seeing 200ish mile range eGolfs so this is likely our last. I'm going to be looking at the Bolt and Kia Niro PHEV...or maybe an eTron depending on what a 2016 will be going for by then.

That Kia Nero PHEV looks nice. Dec release date (Maybe) and only $24k

 

[jeffy1021]

I'm only about 8 months into my lease and have already thought about what I would do haha. My residual is 11.3k but I also did buy the excess wear coverage so that's a reason to return the car. This is my first car lease as well (I've always bought my cars used) so I'm actually inclined to keep it assuming my needs remain the same by the time the lease is up. Obviously there will be nicer stuff out in 2020, but whether or not I actually *need* it is another story.
I am on track with the 7.5k miles per year allowance but could easily put another 1k / year on it if I wanted to instead of using the other household ICE car to even out the mileage. If I planned to keep the car, I could just blow through the mileage.

I do wish the SE had steering wheel controls, but I guess the 2004 MY car it replaced didn't have it either so I am not missing anything I suppose.

 

[RonDawg]

Obviously there will be nicer stuff out in 2020, but whether or not I actually *need* it is another story.

That's why I plan on keeping my car. It's mostly paid off, it will have low mileage for its age (likely to just barely have 20k miles after 3 years), and the range works for me, plus I have an ICEV as a long distance car. Longer range models will definitely be out by the time my car's lease is up, but then I'll be starting over from scratch in terms of the payments, and 150 mile range is something I don't need at this time. Perhaps in the future, but not in the near future.

Now if the range barely works for me, or especially if I have to charge while at work every day to make my commute, it would be a different story.

Transport Evolved just did a video on obsession with range:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1ZiXj2NyO0

 

[REM]

My 2 year lease is up at the end of October '17. I am contemplating extending it. I have a Tesla Model 3 reservation, but it's at least one year off and I have to drive something in the meantime. Residual is 15k, which isn't bad, but I am concerned about the longevity of the battery without thermal management.

 

[ofcounsel]

My lease will be up in April, 2018. Mine will have 45k miles at that time. I use mine exclusively for a 75 round trip mile commute from Orange County to Downtown LA. The range "barely" works for me as my commuter car. So I'll turn mine in.

As a back-and-forth to work car, I've been satisfied with the e-Golf, so I'll consider leasing the new one with more range. But the real reason why I lease this car is for the carpool lane stickers (I have two other internal combustion cars). I'm concerned those will go away by the end of 2018, and then I'll be stuck with a 2 1/2 lease of a car with little value to me. So I might also consider getting a plug-in hybrid to hedge my bets.

 

[REM]

My dealer tells me that I can only extend the lease six months. Bummer.

 

[2016golfse]

As a back-and-forth to work car, I've been satisfied with the e-Golf, so I'll consider leasing the new one with more range. But the real reason why I lease this car is for the carpool lane stickers (I have two other internal combustion cars). I'm concerned those will go away by the end of 2018, and then I'll be stuck with a 2 1/2 lease of a car with little value to me. So I might also consider getting a plug-in hybrid to hedge my bets.

The current plan is for all stickers to expire 1/1/19. Anybody issued a sticker between 1/1/17 and 12/31/18 can get a new sticker that expires 1/1/22. Any sticker issued after 1/1/19 is good for a maximum of 4 years. All carpool stickers expire 9/30/25 regardless if 4 years have elapsed or not.

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB544

 

[forbin404]

As a back-and-forth to work car, I've been satisfied with the e-Golf, so I'll consider leasing the new one with more range. But the real reason why I lease this car is for the carpool lane stickers (I have two other internal combustion cars). I'm concerned those will go away by the end of 2018, and then I'll be stuck with a 2 1/2 lease of a car with little value to me. So I might also consider getting a plug-in hybrid to hedge my bets.

The current plan is for all stickers to expire 1/1/19. Anybody issued a sticker between 1/1/17 and 12/31/18 can get a new sticker that expires 1/1/22. Any sticker issued after 1/1/19 is good for a maximum of 4 years. All carpool stickers expire 9/30/25 regardless if 4 years have elapsed or not.

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB544

woot, because of my issues with the dealer, my sticker was issued 3/1/2017!

 

[ofcounsel]

The current plan is for all stickers to expire 1/1/19. Anybody issued a sticker between 1/1/17 and 12/31/18 can get a new sticker that expires 1/1/22. Any sticker issued after 1/1/19 is good for a maximum of 4 years. All carpool stickers expire 9/30/25 regardless if 4 years have elapsed or not.

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB544

Thanks!!

 

[forbin404]

Just read that, looks like we have to apply for a new sticker in 2019 I hope there isn't a 'cooling off period' between Jan to Mar until you get one of those stickers

 

[shawner123]

Mine is up in Oct 2018, I'll have probably around 20k miles or maybe even less, (only at 12500 now). They want $12,350 if I want to buy the car.

I'm torn because other than the fact that VW as a company is useless, the car is great. I live in LA and the range is never an issue for me, I can sometimes go a couple weeks without needing a charge.

The only issue I've had is the originally factory recall with the vehicle shutting down (which was a horrendous nightmare because VW sucks and the car was so new they didn't think it was a problem) of course months later they issue a recall for the issue. Other than that, knock on wood everything has been fine.



Like others I don't feel like the car is worth paying 13k+ at the end though, if it was under 10k maybe, but VW leasing will not negotiate from what I've heard.

I've had a model 3 reservation in since day 1, but I'm not sure if I'll order one of those either.

Basically I'm going to re-evaluate a few months from when my lease is up and see what other options I might have for the 13-14k I would have to pay, or maybe it by then the Model 3 looks like it's going to be a really great car, and I can still get the full tax incentives I might jump on it. Other things are maybe a used Bolt or Leaf if I can get the newer body style.

In other words, I don't know!

 

[miimura]

The RAV4 EV has had a similar problem where the used market value was lower than the residual value on leases. So, some people that really wanted to finally own a RAV4 EV after leasing started looking for used cars similar to theirs before their lease was ending. Some found good used cars for several thousand dollars less than their lease residual, so bought one before their lease ended, then returned their leased car. This seems to be a perfectly reasonable approach for the e-Golf as well.

 

[johnnylingo]

BMW i3 owners have been experiencing this too. Residuals ~$30k when the fair market value was under 25. In many cases they turned their car in and then bought it off the used lot from the same dealer.

 

[miimura]

BMW i3 owners have been experiencing this too. Residuals ~$30k when the fair market value was under 25. In many cases they turned their car in and then bought it off the used lot from the same dealer.

For most automakers, lease turn-ins don't stay at the same dealership. Toyota collects them and auctions them off. However, if you really want the same car back you can Google the VIN over the following weeks and months to see where it turns up. Most people don't bother because they need a replacement car before or soon after their lease return.